Bob’s Bugle – Real Estate Newsletter – April 2013

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Bob Chapman
Managing Broker

Windermere Real Estate
Lake Stevens, Inc.

9327 4th St. NE, Ste #3
Lake Stevens, WA 98258
USA
Ph: (425) 268-2940
Fax: (425) 335-1838

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Bob's Bugle Real Estate Newsletter April 2013REAL ESTATE NEWS & INFORMATION

Bob’s Bugle Real Estate Newsletter April 2013

April 10, 2013

*Prices Spiking as Homebuyer’s Compete for Scarce Inventory*

KIRKLAND, WA, April 4, 2013 – Brokers added 9,332 new listings to the Northwest Multiple Listing Service database during March, but pending sales topped that number to further crimp inventory and trigger competitive bidding among buyers who are flocking to open houses.

“All price ranges are feeling a lift,” reported Dick Beeson, principal managing broker at large real estate brokerage franchise  in Tacoma, Washington. Northwest MLS director John Deely echoed that comment: “We are seeing many homes in Seattle meet and exceed pre-bubble price levels,” stated Deely, the principal managing broker at at a real estate brokerage in Seattle, WA.

“The recovery continues on a slow and steady pace in most areas and surging hard in others,” concluded Darin Stenvers, vice chair of the MLS board.

Northwest MLS figures show year-over-year prices jumped 14.9 percent for the 21 counties in its service area. The median price for last month’s closed sales of single family homes and condominiums (combined) was $258,500, rising from $225,000 for the same month a year ago. Twelve counties reported double-digit gains, led by Ferry (up 70.9 percent), San Juan (up 47.3 percent), and Island (up 36.1 percent).

Prices for single family homes increased 14.3 percent, while the median sales price for condos, which accounted for about 12 percent of sales, surged 19.6 percent. Two-thirds of last month’s condo sales were in King County; prices there leaped 28.6 percent, increasing from $175,000 to $225,000. The price of a single family home that sold in King County jumped from $330,000 to $392,000 (up 18.8 percent).

Brokers reported 5,745 closed sales last month for a 13.9 percent increase from the previous year when they tallied 5,044 completed transactions.

“The market continues to be incredibly competitive with at least one in four buyers paying cash,” noted MLS director OB Jacobi. “For those not paying cash, the average down payment is between 20 percent and 50 percent,” he added.

Jacobi, the president of Windermere Real Estate Company in Seattle also reported the vast majority of home sales right now have multiple offers, and “it’s no longer restricted to the urban markets — the outlying areas are now experiencing the same thing.”

Brokers say even distressed sellers are receiving multiple offers for their homes.

“As one of my brokers told me, when you have 12 offers on a short sale, it pushes the price of the home up to market value. This is clearly reflected in the appreciation we continue to see in prices across the board,” Jacobi stated. Stenvers, the branch manager at real estate brokerage in a Bellingham , WA office, also noted the impact of distressed homes (including bank-owned and short sales) on the market. “They are not going away, but have slowly leveled off, leaving room for a sustainable return to the ‘normal’ market volume of 2001-2004,” he reported. “This should help the market to continue its recovery, but appraisals will remain a looming concern for buyers until comparable sales can close,” he added.Inventory is depleted area-wide, with only 18,500 active listings in the MLS system at month end. That total is down by almost 6,400 listings year-over-year for a 25.7 percent drop. Counties with the largest declines include Clark (down 46 percent), Snohomish (down 43.8 percent) and King (down 42.4 percent).

System-wide, there is less than a two-month supply of homes, with the tightest selection in Snohomish (0.93 months), King (1.03 months), Clark (1.81 months) and Pierce (1.68 months) counties. In general, analysts consider four-to-six months of supply to be normal.

Demand continues to outpace supply, creating high absorption rates, Deely stated, adding “Open houses are drawing large crowds.” For example, he reported several open houses from the past weekend experienced traffic exceeding 50 people per day.

“Fortunately, Kitsap is the eddy to Seattle’s fast-current market,” said Frank Wilson, Kitsap district manager for another large real estate brokerage in the Puget Sound reagion and a member of the Northwest MLS board of directors. “Our homes are still selling nicely with a medium amount of multi offer activity and a ‘normal market’ spring ramp-up,” he added, with a note of caution about rapid price jumps and low appraisals.

“Price appreciation is a two-edged sword. Too much, too fast will land us where we were a few years ago. Slow and steady appreciation is what we are seeing now and hopefully in the future. This will allow the average income earner in Kitsap to still be able to qualify for a home,” Wilson stated. He also noted “significant investments” being made in that county by businesses such as Harrison Hospital and Safeway. “Investments like these are not made unless the businesses are bullish on the future growth of Kitsap County.”

The South Sound market is responding to trends elsewhere, according to Dick Beeson. “Buyers are everywhere and sellers are strategizing when, how and at what price to come on the market,” he commented, but said both parties sometimes have unrealistic expectations. In addition, he said “multiple offers create additional issues for brokers, buyers, appraisers, and lenders.”

“Many buyers are still clinging to the idea that they have the upper hand in the real estate market. Well they do and they don’t,” Beeson remarked. Buyers have the upper hand when sellers want to list for “absurd prices and refuse to repair serious flaws in their properties,” he explained.

Thinking that banks and short sale sellers and their corresponding underlying lenders are easy pickings and will accept any price is also flawed, according to Beeson, whose analysis shows about one-fourth of inventory is still made up of distressed properties. “With banks experiencing considerable pressure from Congress and the public not to foreclose, more short sales and fewer foreclosures are anticipated,) he suggested. Rising prices “could take some properties past the short sale price at which they started. That’s good for all of us,” he added.

“With sales trending upward and listing activity trending downward, it’s no surprise inventory seems to be hitting new lows,” said Mike Grady, president and COO of a Puget Sound area real estate brokerage franchise. “Homeowners and investors appear to be holding out for property values to increase,” he added.

Pending sales are mirroring the shifts in market conditions. Volume area-wide was up only 3.9 percent from a year ago, rising from 9,126 mutually accepted offers to 9,482.

Five counties – Ferry, Grays Harbor, Island, King, and Snohomish — reported fewer pending sales than a year ago, likely a consequence of the limited selection.

“The old supply and demand equation is fully in play,” observed Stenvers. Citing data from the chief economist for Stewart Title, Stenvers said the pressure on rental markets will continue to drive buyers back into home ownership for the next 15-24 months, magnifying inventory shortages. He said the northern regions of the state (encompassing Whatcom, Skagit, San Juan and Island counties) are experiencing declining inventory and rising sales consistent with a recovery.

Stenvers also noted most economists agree it’s not a matter of if interest rates will go up, but only a question of which quarter of 2013 the rise will occur. “If inventory stays low and interest rates climb, buyers may feel they missed out on the bargain they are looking for and sales my slow again by the end of the year,” he surmised. Nevertheless, he pointed out with home sales expected to return to 2003-2004 (pre-bubble) levels, and median prices not yet reaching those same levels, “homeownership is still very attractive and remains a solid investment.”

I am a Short Sale specialist for Seller’s needing to list their home for sale or Buyer’s wanting to obtain a Great deal by Buying a Short Sale home!

Referrals are a “very” important part of my business. Please let me know of anyone that you know who may be considering Buying or Selling real estate – or please give them my name and contact information!

Thank You!

Bob Chapman

Bob’s Bugle Real Estate Newsletter April 2013

Statistical Summary by Counties: Market Activity Summary for March 2013

Single

Family

Homes

+ Condos

LISTINGS

PENDING

SALES

CLOSED SALES

MONTHS

SUPPLY

New

Listings

 

Total

Active

 

# Pending

Sales

 

#

Closings

 

Avg.

Price

 

Median

Price

 
 
King

3,426

3,860

3,740

2,376

$433,236

$349,950

1.03

Snohomish

1,281

1,470

1,576

932

$284,906

$269,950

0.93

Pierce

1,411

2,766

1,649

936

$217,115

$200,000

1.68

Kitsap

507

1,287

435

246

$284,007

$230,550

2.96

Mason

159

629

96

64

$159,469

$132,500

6.55

Skagit

257

723

207

118

$260,255

$216,000

3.49

Grays Hrbor

169

717

97

48

$120,407

$117,700

7.39

Lewis

143

559

107

56

$144,299

$129,500

5.22

Cowlitz

126

390

131

92

$164,604

$140,625

2.98

Grant

116

451

88

44

$166,760

$154,250

5.13

Thurston

447

1,056

450

264

$222,881

$216,500

2.35

San Juan

66

309

28

15

$505,817

$415,000

11.04

Island

219

663

129

80

$293,890

$299,475

5.14

Kittitas

94

345

70

43

$309,881

$245,000

4.93

Jefferson

81

353

49

40

$294,483

$261,500

7.2

Okanogan

49

344

29

17

$179,341

$149,500

11.86

Whatcom

438

1,225

330

187

$257,322

$238,000

3.71

Clark

59

136

75

63

$256,725

$230,000

1.81

Pacific

71

337

41

25

$156,186

$110,000

8.22

Ferry

6

72

2

2

$114,950

$114,950

36

Clallam

89

323

72

39

$197,376

$170,000

4.49

Others

118

485

81

58

$210,846

$154,000

5.99

MLS TOTAL

9,332

18,500

9,482

5,745

$322,313

$258,500

1.95

 

4-County Puget Sound Region Pending Sales (SFH + Condo combined)
(Totals include King, Snohomish, Pierce & Kitsap counties)

Bob’s Bugle Real Estate Newsletter April 2013

 JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec
2000370647785903511654905079492854324569467541263166
2001433450565722539956315568543455444040438741553430
2002429347355569543661315212552562155394577749664153
2003474652906889683771487202767371356698655249044454
2004452162848073791078888186758374646984676162285195

2005

542668338801842086108896820787847561715761884837

2006

527560328174765184118094712176926216640352924346

2007

486962397192697473116876637155804153444738962975
2008329141674520462445264765458045844445334628412432
2009325034074262537254985963555157645825570238293440
2010438152116821736840584239430645204350437639383474
2011427247676049573259635868565759445299538448144197
2012492160697386701572956733648963415871645351884181
2013554860957400         

Northwest Multiple Listing Service, owned by its member brokers, is the largest full-service MLS in the Northwest. Its membership includes more than 21,000 brokers and agents. The organization, based in Kirkland, currently serves 21 counties in Western and Central Washington.

Bob’s Bugle Real Estate Newsletter April 2013, copyright 2013. All material contained herein is owned and protected. Any attempts to reproduce this information without the express written consent from the owner will be prosecuted.

Check out my website(s): www.washingtonrealestatepage.com or www.washingtonlandandhomes.com.

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